ADAS, Autonomous Vehicles and the Future of the Aftermarket

ADAS, Autonomous Vehicles and the Future of the Aftermarket

Looking forward to the next 22 years, it’s clear that the pace of change is only going to accelerate.

We always talk about the average age of a vehicle crossing the 12-year mark. But, I think the more interesting number is the average age of a vehicle that’s scrapped. This is a difficult number to obtain due to title laws in the different states, but some have estimated it at 22 years. This number also includes vehicles that were lost to crashes.

I began thinking about how much can change in 22 years. It’s hard to imagine that vehicles rolling off assembly lines today will be gone in 2045 unless they’re stashed away by a collector, but this type of turnover is a fact of life.

All this got me thinking back to when I was first hired as an associate editor with Brake & Front End. With every passing year, there are fewer cars and trucks needing throttle cables, distributor caps and drum-brake shoes. Even if we’ve lost these service opportunities, we’ve gained twice as many in the past two decades.

If you told my 26-year-old self in 2000 when I started with Brake & Front End that automakers were going to have sensors that measure live tire pressure as a standard feature, I wouldn’t have believed you. At the time, electronic stability control was something that could be found only on a new BMW 7 Series or Mercedes-Benz 600SL models, and only as an option. Now, it’s been a government-mandated standard feature.

Other things that are commonplace today would have shocked me back then. Examples of this are the 10,000-mile oil-change interval and coolant that can last 125,000 miles. Also, new technologies like ADAS and hybrid drivetrains were just as exotic as a Lamborghini.

Looking forward to the next 22 years, it’s clear that the pace of change is only going to accelerate. Internal combustion isn’t going away. Instead, these engines will become turbocharged and direct-injected and get smaller, both in overall size and displacement.

Autonomous vehicles are coming, like it or not. But, fully autonomous vehicles aren’t coming for at least another 10 years. Sure, the technology to make a fully autonomous vehicle is possible, and such vehicles are being tested on the roads today. But, society has yet to fully embrace robot drivers both legally and psychologically.

The big issue over the next 22 years will be serviceability. With all of the fancy sensors and software that make driving safer, what will they look like 22 years from now? Will they still function, or will these safety systems be just another malfunction indicator light or message in the driver information center because the driver can’t afford to resolve the problem?

You May Also Like

Lightning eMotors to Liquidate Assets

Through its receivership, the company plans to use the funds to pay its creditors.

Lightning eMotors

Lightning eMotors, a Loveland, Colorado-based manufacturer of electric vehicles for commercial fleets, and its wholly owned subsidiary, Lightning Systems Inc., recently announced that the company is liquidating its assets to pay its creditors.

Cordes & Co., as receiver of the company, has entered into an asset purchase agreement to sell substantially all of the assets of the company, free and clear of all liens, claims, encumbrances, interests and liabilities, for $12.6 million in cash, subject to adjustment. 

Are Sitting and Standing the New Smoking?

Prolonged standing can be tough on the body. Apparently, sitting is just as bad.

Right to Repair: Are the Times a-Changin’?

Perhaps this is the window of opportunity for the aftermarket’s legislative agenda.

Angry Driving Or ‘COVID Driving’?

If we all don’t slow down, we’re all going to get somewhere fast all right — a grave.

The Changing Vehicle-Ownership Cycle

Repairs that once would send people running to the dealership are now acceptable investments for vehicle owners.

Other Posts

SMP Introduces 208 New Part Numbers in January

The release provides new coverage in 72 product categories and 115 part numbers for 2022, 2023 and 2024 model-year vehicles.

SMP January
Understanding the Customer Lifecycle

Knowing the most effective ways to connect with each customer type helps create repeat business and build your brand.

Customer Lifecycle
Mullen Class 3 EV Truck Receives CARB Certification

The certification is awarded to vehicle manufacturers that meet specific emissions standards in compliance with CARB regulations.

Mullen THREE
Check the Part: Return Guide for Fluid Reservoirs

Dorman recommends these four steps to determine if it’s a valid warranty claim.

Fluid Reservoir