Battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) will comprise 35% of total U.S. light-vehicle sales by 2030, according to a projection in the newly released 2023 Joint EV Trends and Outlook Forecast.
The Auto Care Association and MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers announced the release of the jointly commissioned report at AAPEX in Las Vegas. The report is part of an industry collaboration aiming to inform and support the auto care industry as it navigates change.
BEV sales are projected to account for 9% of total U.S. light-vehicles sales in 2023, according to the report.
The U.S. car parc is projected to include approximately 10% BEVs by 2030, with that number expanding to account for nearly half of all vehicles by 2045 at 47%.
As the complexity and cost of replacement components increase, the aftermarket-parts market will continue to grow – meaning the average service shop with two to three bays is expected to need to invest between $80,000 and $270,000 to remain competitive in the EV-services market.
New this year, the 2023 Joint EV Trends and Outlook Forecast report includes the addition of an expanded feature focused on the impact of EVs on aftermarket service providers.
“The study reveals that electrification and ADAS offer the greatest growth potential, growing at 18% and 8% CAGR as the car parc transitions to newer technologies,” commented Paul McCarthy, president and CEO of MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers. “We have learned from the current crop of EVs that while sometimes different things break, they still break– and the aftermarket will be ready.”
“By the end of this decade, one in 10 new vehicles in the U.S. will be a BEV,” said Bill Hanvey, president and CEO of the Auto Care Association. “The trend toward electric-vehicle adoption among Americans continues to rise year over year, presenting the aftermarket industry with a clear view of its future: investment in the modernization of auto care businesses now will be essential to our survival in the decades to come.”
PwC Strategy&, IMR Inc.|AutomotiveResearch.com, Schwartz Advisors and S&P Global Mobility contributed research and analysis for the 2023 Joint EV Trends and Outlook Forecast.
Auto Care Association and MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers members receive complimentary access to the report as a membership benefit. Non-members can purchase the report for $1,500 and access it instantly on the Auto Care Digital Hub at digital.autocare.org or the MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers website at mema.org.