The automotive aftermarket grew by 9.7% in 2022, outperforming previous forecasts of 8.5% growth.

With high inflation persisting, the industry is expected to grow an additional 8.1% in 2023 before settling to more modest – but still substantial – growth rates that will continue to make the industry an attractive one for investors.

The data comes from the 2023 Joint Channel Forecast Model report, published by the Auto Care Association and MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers, in partnership with S&P Global.

This year’s report finds that despite the recent increase in economic strain for many Americans due to rising costs, the industry continues to show its reliability and ability to adapt across the service and retail sectors, continually adjusting to meet demand in an ever-dynamic market.

While new-vehicle inventory is being replenished as the supply chain pressures have eased somewhat across the industry, the vehicle parc continues to age, and increasing costs of both new and used vehicles continue to encourage owners to keep their vehicles longer. These factors have provided tailwinds to the automotive aftermarket as vehicle miles traveled have returned to pre-pandemic levels.

“Consistency, reliability and adaptability – that’s what the motoring public have come to expect from the auto care industry over the years, but especially in more recent times with many Americans facing the very real rise in their cost of living,” said Bill Hanvey, president and CEO of the Auto Care Association. “The latest Joint Channel Forecast Model demonstrates this reality with the latest market figures surpassing expectations yet again.”

Key topics in the new report include:

• Market-size projections in billions of dollars through 2026, along with year-over-year percent change
• Sales dollars and market share for the retail, service and dealer channels
• Key economic projections through 2026 such as GDP, consumer price index and the CPI for vehicle maintenance and repair
• Forecasts for motor vehicle sales through 2026
• Detailed factors influencing the growth in the aftermarket

“The automotive aftermarket continues to prove that it can succeed on two fronts: the longstanding production and manufacturing that gives the aftermarket its strong foundation, and the innovation and entrepreneurship that are required with the burgeoning technology changes and opportunities in transportation,” commented Paul McCarthy, president and CEO of MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers. “This year’s Joint Channel Forecast provides an impressive outlook for the aftermarket and underscores the value of investment in this industry.”

The annual Joint Channel Forecast Model report gives an in-depth industry outlook with the latest and most reliable market projections, channel-performance analysis and emerging trends. The full report is intended to help provide further details about the factors influencing the growth of the auto care industry to help businesses make informed decisions, identify growth opportunities and optimize their market strategies.

The Joint Channel Forecast Model report is available to Auto Care Association and MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers members as a membership benefit.

Auto Care members can access the Joint Channel Forecast report in the 2024 Auto Care Factbook at digital.autocare.org/2024factbook.

MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers can access the report at mema.org.